MetaChat - Anyone for an Economic Dead Pool?

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22 January 2008

Anyone for an Economic Dead Pool? Tell me the date and time you expect to see the Dow Jones Industrials, bellwether indicator of the U.S. Economy, (which is down from it's 14,280 high three months ago to 12,099 Friday, losing almost 1500 points since Christmas) drop below 10,000.→[More:]
World markets were plummeting while the US traders took the day off Monday, and they're expecting to lose over 600 AT THE OPEN this morning, so, I'm gonna say next Monday, January 28th at 10:30AM EST. (It could get halfway there in one day, but there's usually a bit of a 'dead cat bounce') Longer term questions... how low can it go? I say 6600 in the next few months, and what will it be when Bush leaves the building a year from now*? How about 7,140... exactly half of its recent peak.

And what do you win for the best doomsday prediction? Maybe in honor of their investment namesakes, I'll put up some old used CDs of cheezy music to the winning loser. Welcome to the New Economic Order.

*that's assuming he leaves, which the REAL cynic in me assures you is NOT a sure thing.

post by: wendell at: 04:44 | 13 comments

I'll take a stab at it: 2:00 PM EST, Wednesday, January 30. Reasoning: retailers fully realize even more so what a beating they've been taking and the losses become news. Stock holders wig once it sinks in how the world markets are being affected.

How long and to what extent? I'm even more clueless.

posted by bonobo 22 January | 05:17

I'll be the contrarian and say it only gets down to 10,500 by Friday 1/25 and then hover back around 11,000 if the US has an optimal February where energy companies make a profit and consumers don't take a bath.

I think most of what is occurring right now is the global market wringing a good bit of the corruption out of its system, sweating off a few pounds of padding, and getting its clearest look at itself ever in a mirror.

posted by Ardiril 22 January | 05:41

In the next few months? I predict it won't get anywhere near 6600. If it fell to 6600 in the next 9 months, the 12-month fall would be 10% larger than the fall in the first 12 months of the Great Depression. Of course there will always be people saying that this will be the year of the Even Greater Depression - and one year perhaps they'll be right - but I don't think it's the way to bet.

As the famous line goes, the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions.

posted by matthewr 22 January | 05:44

Down to 10,000 by the middle of the day 26th Jan.

They won't let the market lose more than 10% a day, so you'll probably see a hit of three or four massive hits spread over then next 4 days.

*note* I am not an economist.
*note 2* I am a pessimist.

posted by seanyboy 22 January | 07:29

Hmph, a 75-point cut! Not good news; now would have been a good time for the Fed to show a bit of backbone.

posted by matthewr 22 January | 08:42

I predict it won't hit 10,000 until May 25. A combination of businesses announcing bad quarters mixed with insanely high gas prices will cause it to plummet.

One of the interesting thoughts to me is that I think the more it goes down, the more it will go down. The way I look at it is, more people are invested in the stock market through things like 401ks. While some people will be able to weather years of a bad market, others that planned on retiring soon will look at their "savings" diminish on paper and will cause more selling.

I'm not an economist, but I'm pretty sure things are going to get worse.

posted by drezdn 22 January | 09:53

Won't happen.

posted by Eideteker 22 January | 12:43

Let me just add that I expected something dramatic from the Fed or the Admin, but I did not expect a .75 rate cut before the markets even opened today. So, now I wish I'd pushed my prediction out a week or more farther. And since it's clear that they're going to throw out everything they've got to support the markets, it probably won't go much below 9000 this year. But the Next President is going to face an impossible economic situation with little or no resources left to do anything. Bush's final revenge?

posted by wendell 22 January | 12:52

Bush's final revenge?

What on earth would Bush have to avenge? I mean he's the luckiest moron on the face of the earth, and he'll waltz away to an extravagant retirement, and never ever have a self-doubt about the ruin he has left of the world.

posted by danf 22 January | 14:46

2nd Eideteker. Probably won't hit 11,000. It will see 14,000 again before 10,000.

posted by netbros 23 January | 00:25

I wish I'd pushed my prediction out a week or more farther.

Ok, it's a month later, and it still hasn't happened. Can we take off the tinfoil hats now?

posted by Eideteker 25 February | 10:20

The sky did not fall.

posted by matthewr 25 February | 10:58

And we're there..

posted by seanyboy 06 October | 13:41

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