Having just taught a statistics course, I got it right with 15% of the doctors.

Oh, that Yudkowsky guy scares me. And not in any way because of Bayesian reasoning.

Madamina, I kind of agree, though I'm have a hard time putting my finger on it. Why does he scare you?

Here's my take:

My first impression of reading through the Less Wrong site is that it felt kind of cultish -- that he'd written all the core material didn't help. And there's something about his writing style that comes across (at least at first) as quite coldly arrogant, but also uncannily intimate.

But then I learned the core material consists merely of interrelated blog posts, not of some sort of bizarre systematic theological exegesis, and that he's very consciously trying to walk the walk he talks (e.g., learning to cultivate rationality or clarity) and incorporate others into the conversation about what that means -- and that made me feel a little less wary.

In the end though, reading this article really taught me a lot -- it did what it said on the package, and gave me a genuinely intuitive grasp of Bayes's Theorem. And that feels really empowering and unexpectedly exciting.